Overview
- Futures imply roughly an 85%–90% chance of a 25 basis‑point reduction on Dec. 10, which would be the third cut this year.
- Multiple dissents are expected, with hawks such as Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid likely opposing a cut and Governor Stephen Miran favoring a larger move.
- The government shutdown delayed key November jobs and recent inflation releases, leaving policymakers to lean on partial and private indicators.
- Analysts widely anticipate a “hawkish cut,” with markets now pricing about two additional reductions through 2026 and close scrutiny on the SEP dot plot.
- Longer‑term Treasury yields have risen to multi‑month highs even as policy has eased, and global stocks and currencies are trading nervously ahead of the decision.