Overview
- The Federal Open Market Committee is expected Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range, with futures pricing the move as a near certainty.
- Investors largely expect at least one additional reduction in December, though Chair Jerome Powell is expected to avoid pre‑committing given heightened uncertainty.
- A government shutdown has delayed key releases such as the September jobs report, forcing policymakers to lean on alternative indicators including ADP figures and state-level claims.
- Officials have signaled the balance-sheet runoff is nearing its end, with analysts eyeing a possible halt within months as the Fed’s assets have shrunk to about $6.6 trillion from a $9 trillion peak.
- Divisions over the path ahead are sharpening, with Governor Stephen Miran advocating a larger 50‑basis‑point cut and others, including Christopher Waller, urging a cautious, data‑dependent pace.