Overview
- Futures imply roughly 85%–90% odds of a 25‑basis‑point reduction on Dec. 10, which would take the target range to about 3.50%–3.75%.
- A prolonged government shutdown canceled full October jobs and CPI releases, leaving policymakers to rely on delayed figures such as a 4.4% unemployment rate and September PCE inflation at 2.8% year over year.
- Officials have signaled sharply differing views, with Chair Jerome Powell previously saying a December cut is not a foregone conclusion and reporting pointing to potential dissents on both sides of the debate.
- The Fed will publish an updated Summary of Economic Projections, and Powell’s press conference is expected to outline how jobs and inflation risks could shape the 2026 policy path.
- Leadership and governance questions hang over the outlook, with reporting on a possible Kevin Hassett nomination by President Trump and a pending Supreme Court case on removing Governor Lisa Cook in early 2026.