Overview
- Futures imply roughly 88%–90% odds of a 25-basis-point move to 3.50%–3.75%, which would be the lowest level in nearly three years.
- New projections and the dot plot are due with the decision, and forecasters expect fewer or more conditional cuts penciled in for 2026.
- Powell’s statement at 2 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET are expected to emphasize caution with core PCE near 2.8% and unemployment around 4.4%.
- A 43-day shutdown delayed October and November jobs and inflation reports to next week, forcing policymakers to act with incomplete data and increasing the likelihood of dissents.
- Officials remain split, with several regional presidents pushing back on further easing and Governor Stephen Miran arguing for larger 50-basis-point reductions.