Overview
- Futures put roughly 85%–88% odds on a quarter-point move to 3.50%–3.75%, with a hold considered a major surprise.
- Analysts expect at least two dissenting votes against easing, and three or more would be rare based on records since 1990.
- The meeting follows a government shutdown that delayed vital reports, with the latest available PCE reading at 2.8% year over year for September.
- Fed minutes highlighted risks of firmer goods prices from tariffs even as officials point to labor-market softness to justify further easing.
- Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the decision and release 2026 projections, with leadership uncertainty in focus as President Trump signals Kevin Hassett as a possible successor.