Overview

• Futures and swaps point to a 25-basis-point reduction on Sept. 16–17, with investors zeroing in on the new dot plot and Chair Powell’s guidance on the pace of easing.
• Morgan Stanley now projects cuts at four consecutive meetings through January, while Deutsche Bank added a third 2025 cut to its outlook.
• Fed rhetoric shows a clear split between officials focused on persistent inflation and those worried about job losses, as President Trump urges a larger move and nominates Stephen Miran to the Board pending Senate confirmation.
• A Reuters poll indicates the Bank of Canada is likely to lower its rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 17 after a weak jobs report and a deeper-than-expected GDP drop, with most economists expecting at least one more cut this year.
• Policy divergence is sharpening: the Bank of England is expected to hold on Sept. 18 with any cut likely in Q4, China’s PBOC is inclined to wait to avoid stoking a stock surge, and Russia cut by 100 basis points to 17% even as inflation remains elevated.