Overview
- Futures imply roughly 80%–90% odds of a 25-basis-point move to 3.50%–3.75%, making a third straight cut the base case.
- Officials remain split, with analysts expecting possible dissents after Powell flagged “strongly differing views” and John Williams signaled openness to easing.
- A government shutdown delayed key releases, leaving October jobs and CPI unavailable before the decision and forcing heavier reliance on private indicators.
- Markets will parse any hint on the Fed’s balance sheet stance, with investors watching whether runoff slows, holds flat, or shifts toward growth.
- The leadership picture looms over guidance, as Powell’s term ends in 2026 and prediction markets see Kevin Hassett as a likely nominee by President Trump.