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Fed Pauses Rates as Job Growth Slows, Board Vacancy Fuels Political Pressure

Markets now price an 80% probability of a September rate cut after Friday’s surprisingly weak jobs report.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell walks off after speaking during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, July 30, 2025, in Washington.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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Overview

  • The Labor Department reported that employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and May and June gains were revised sharply lower.
  • Traders pushed the odds of a September Fed rate cut to around 80%, up from 38% before the jobs data, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.
  • Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman registered a rare dual dissent at the July 30 FOMC meeting, each advocating a 25-basis-point cut.
  • Governor Adriana Kugler said she will resign early on August 8, creating a vacancy on the Fed’s seven-member board.
  • President Trump urged the Fed board to override Chair Jerome Powell and implement rate cuts, increasing scrutiny of the Fed’s independence.