Overview
- St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee said Wednesday the Iran conflict is driving an inflation shock that could keep policy rates unchanged for some time.
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Thursday she expects rates to stay on hold for quite some time and opposed wording that hints the next move is a cut.
- Traders reset their outlook, with swaps now pricing better-than-even odds that the Fed raises rates by next April rather than cutting first, according to Bloomberg data cited by The Street.
- Oil rebounded above $100 a barrel, U.S. gasoline averages more than $4.50 a gallon, and a New York Fed gauge shows the highest supply‑chain stress since 2022, signaling broader price pressure.
- Globally, central banks paused easing in April, Australia raised rates on May 5, and South Africa’s governor said he will keep options open to defend a 3% inflation goal.