Overview

• The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 17–18 meeting as officials await clearer data on trade impacts.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said a strong economy allows the central bank to remain patient and may justify only one rate cut this year depending on how uncertainties resolve.
• Governor Lisa Cook warned that tariffs could drive up inflation and slow economic growth by denting manufacturing output and curbing business investment.
• Underlying inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target despite some moderation in headline readings, prompting policymakers to proceed with caution.
• Market participants are pricing in a first rate reduction in September, reflecting expectations that mounting trade risks will eventually require monetary easing.