Overview

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is wary of front‑loading cuts, citing an uptick in inflation and weakening payroll gains.
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated that risks are tilted toward weaker employment and higher inflation, endorsing modest easing to keep policy balanced.
• The FOMC lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points in September, while futures markets are positioned for two additional quarter‑point reductions this year.
• The federal shutdown has paused the release of the September jobs report and other key indicators, forcing policymakers to lean more on judgment and internal models.
• A new Chicago Fed model estimated the unemployment rate held at 4.3% in September, and Jefferson noted tariff effects are nudging prices higher but likely prove one‑off.