Overview
- The Fed lowered its policy rate to 3.75%–4.00% last week in a 10–2 vote, with Stephen Miran pushing for a 50 bp cut and Jeffrey Schmid preferring no change.
- Austan Goolsbee said he is not decided for December and is more cautious on further easing given inflation’s drift, while Mary Daly backed the latest cut and kept an open mind on another move.
- Lisa Cook called December a live meeting and said the Fed is relying on private and administrative data as shutdown-delayed government reports constrain visibility.
- Miran argued policy remains too restrictive despite buoyant markets, whereas Schmid warned inflation is still elevated and views policy as only modestly restrictive.
- In Australia, a 1.0% q/q jump in trimmed-mean inflation and a 3.1% y/y reading from the Melbourne Institute CPI have led economists to expect the RBA to hold the cash rate at 3.6% and to focus on updated forecasts.