Overview
- The FOMC last week delivered a second 25-basis-point reduction of 2025 to 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote, with Stephen Miran seeking a 50 bp cut and Jeffrey Schmid preferring no change.
- Governor Lisa Cook supported the latest cut, called the December meeting live, warned tariff pass-through could keep inflation elevated, and said she would act forcefully if price pressures strengthen.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is undecided for December, expressed concern that inflation remains above target, and urged caution against front‑loading cuts during the data shutdown.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the cut offered insurance against labor-market softening, is keeping an open mind for December, and is relying on surveys and private indicators given missing federal data.
- Futures imply roughly a 60%–67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December as suspended government releases cloud the Fed’s read on jobs and prices.