Fed Officials Split Before December Call as Williams Says Cuts Still Possible

Markets now see a modest likelihood of a pause, with late data plus conflicting signals leaving the December call uncertain.

Overview

Susan Collins of Boston and Lorie Logan of Dallas argued for holding rates after two earlier cuts in September and October.
New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank can reduce rates in the short term without jeopardizing its inflation objective.
Governor Stephen Miran signaled openness to easing, reinforcing the visible divide within the policy ranks.
Analysts currently assign roughly a 60% probability to a December pause, though a further cut remains on the table.
Key releases clustered after a prolonged shutdown showed 119,000 September job gains, unemployment at 4.4%, and inflation near 3%, while Williams’ remarks calmed a fragile market still about 5% off recent highs.