Overview

• Michelle Bowman said she would support lowering the policy rate at the July 29–30 meeting if inflation pressures stay contained.
• Christopher Waller echoed Bowman’s view by arguing that cuts should begin before a significant downturn in the labor market.
• The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% from April to May, underscoring the argument for earlier monetary easing.
• Traders assign about a 23% probability to a July rate cut and roughly 78% to one in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell has urged patience and plans to monitor summer economic data before making any decisions on rate reductions.