Overview
- New York Fed President John Williams said he enters the September FOMC meeting with an open mind on cutting rates, subject to incoming data.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described every future meeting as ‘live’ for policy changes, citing a cooling labor market without broad tariff-driven inflation spillovers.
- Futures markets now assign more than a 90% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the September 16–17 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Economists at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America caution that high inflation, paired with a stable unemployment rate, makes a 2025 rate cut unlikely despite weaker payroll figures.
- Having front-loaded 100 basis points of repo rate cuts since February, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain its 5.5% rate at the August meeting as low inflation faces fresh downside risks from US reciprocal tariffs.