Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Fed Minutes Tilt Toward December Pause as Banxico Cuts and Opens Door to More Easing

With key jobs figures delayed, investors now see a December pause as the likeliest Fed outcome.

Overview

  • FOMC minutes from the Oct. 28–29 meeting show deep divisions, with many officials indicating a preference to keep rates unchanged in December after a 10–2 vote to cut 25 basis points in October.
  • The Labor Department’s BLS will not release a complete October employment report, leaving the Fed without fresh labor data for its Dec. 9–10 decision as the November jobs report arrives on Dec. 16.
  • Market pricing shifted toward a hold next month, with CME FedWatch placing roughly two‑thirds odds on no change after the minutes and data delays.
  • Banco de México reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in a majority decision and revised guidance to say it will consider additional cuts as inflation forecasts were updated.
  • Banxico subgovernor Omar Mejía Castelazo said there is room to ease further given weak activity, noting a 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP contraction and persistent core inflation above 4%.