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Fed Minutes Show Deep Split as Markets Cut Odds of December Rate Move

A prolonged data gap leaves officials cautious about acting again next month.

Overview

  • Minutes from the Oct. 28–29 meeting show “many” participants leaning against another cut in December, while “several” said a move could be appropriate if conditions unfold as expected.
  • The FOMC voted 10–2 to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with dissents favoring both a larger cut and no cut.
  • Officials noted that most expect additional easing over time but warned that cutting too soon could undercut progress toward the 2% inflation goal.
  • The committee agreed to stop balance‑sheet runoff on Dec. 1, after shrinking holdings by more than $2.5 trillion to roughly $6.6 trillion.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics will skip October jobs data and delay November’s report until after the meeting, and traders have lowered CME‑implied odds of a December cut to roughly one‑third, pressuring stocks and cryptocurrencies.