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Fed Minutes Show Broad Support for More Cuts, Deep Split on Pace

With key reports on hold during the shutdown, policymakers face greater uncertainty ahead of the Oct. 28–29 decision.

Overview

  • Minutes from the Sept. 16–17 meeting detail an 11–1 vote to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%.
  • Most officials judged it would likely be appropriate to ease further this year, though views diverged on whether to deliver two or three total cuts in 2025 including September’s move.
  • Updated projections showed a near-even split, with a slim majority pointing to two additional quarter-point reductions by year‑end.
  • Several participants warned inflation remains above the 2% target and cited tariff effects, with a few saying they could have supported leaving rates unchanged given stalled disinflation.
  • New Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 50-basis-point cut and has advocated a faster path, as markets price another quarter-point reduction at the Oct. 28–29 meeting and possibly one more by December.