Overview

• Minutes from the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting show only a couple of officials backing a rate cut at the July 29–30 meeting, with most forecasting reductions later in 2025.
• Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee reiterated a data-driven hold on policy, citing their dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximum employment.
• President Trump has escalated public pressure through social media posts, handwritten notes and threats to replace Powell with a candidate committed to rate cuts.
• Market indicators like the CME FedWatch Tool assign barely a 5% chance to a July cut, instead pricing in easing in the second half of 2025 as tariff-driven inflation risks clarify.
• The Fed’s structural safeguards and a Supreme Court signal barring the president from firing the chair underscore the central bank’s institutional independence.