Overview
- Policymakers voted 9–3 to lower the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran seeking a larger cut and Presidents Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferring no change.
- Several officials who backed the move said the decision was finely balanced, and some argued it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for some time after December’s reduction.
- Most participants said additional cuts would likely be appropriate only if inflation continues to decline, even as others warned that easing too soon could undermine confidence in the 2% goal.
- Data gaps from a roughly 43‑day government shutdown complicated the outlook, with catch‑up figures showing November CPI at about 2.7% and unemployment at 4.6% based on atypical methods.
- The committee approved restarting short‑term Treasury bill purchases at roughly $40 billion per month, markets now largely expect a January hold, and 2026 voting rotations and a pending chair nomination add to policy uncertainty.