Overview

• Minutes from the Sept. 16–17 meeting show most officials judged further rate reductions this year as likely, even as views diverged on how many and how fast.
• The vote was 11–1 for a 25 bp cut to 4.00%–4.25%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a 50 bp move and later publicly pressing for a faster series of larger cuts.
• Participants said downside risks to employment had increased while upside inflation risks had diminished or not risen, though staff still see inflation risks skewed higher.
• Some officials noted financial conditions may not be particularly restrictive and a few said they could have supported holding rates, reflecting concern over persistent services inflation and tariff effects viewed as one‑time for goods.
• With the government shutdown delaying BLS payrolls and likely CPI, markets are pricing another 25 bp cut Oct. 28–29 and high odds of one more by year‑end, while Miran cites a calm bond market as support for swift easing.