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Fed Minutes Point to December Hold as Many Officials Lean Against Further Cuts

Futures pricing moved to roughly two-thirds odds of a pause after the October FOMC minutes were released.

Overview

  • Minutes from the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting were published Nov. 19 by the Federal Reserve.
  • Many participants judged that holding the policy rate in December would be appropriate.
  • A minority argued for continuing interest-rate cuts, underscoring internal differences on the path of easing.
  • Market-implied odds of a December hold rose to about 66% by the afternoon of Nov. 19 from roughly even the day before.
  • The next policy decision will come at the Dec. 9–10 FOMC meeting, leaving the final outcome still to be decided.