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Fed Minutes Nudge Markets Lower as Futures Point to January Hold

Thin holiday liquidity kept U.S. losses modest.

Overview

  • U.S. benchmarks dipped on Dec. 30, with the Dow down 0.20%, the S&P 500 off 0.14% and the Nasdaq lower by 0.24%.
  • Newly released December FOMC minutes showed a divided committee and signaled limited room for additional cuts, raising the prospect of a pause.
  • Fed funds futures priced roughly an 85% probability that policymakers leave rates unchanged at the January meeting.
  • Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC fell 1.50% and FTSE BIVA lost 1.43%, yet both remain on track for strong 2025 gains of about 30% and 26.79%, while the peso held under 18 per dollar at 17.9959.
  • The minutes also noted that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown may distort incoming data, and sector moves included a 1.11% rise in Meta after it agreed to acquire AI startup Manus for more than $2 billion.