Overview

• Minutes from the Sept. 16–17 meeting show an 11–1 vote to trim the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a half-point cut.
• Most participants judged it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further in 2025, though a few said they could have supported leaving rates unchanged.
• Projections reflected a near-even split, with a slim majority expecting two additional quarter-point cuts this year and others favoring fewer or none.
• Officials cited increased downside risks to employment but many emphasized upside inflation risks, and some noted financial conditions suggest policy may not be particularly restrictive.
• A federal government shutdown has halted key reports such as the September jobs data, complicating the outlook ahead of the Oct. 28–29 meeting that markets expect could bring another quarter-point cut.