Overview
- Meeting minutes from Sept. 16–17 show most officials favor lowering rates further this year, with the dot plot narrowly tipping 10–9 for two additional quarter-point cuts after September’s move to 4.00%–4.25%.
- New Governor Stephen Miran issued the lone dissent, backing a half-point cut and a faster easing path based on his view that the neutral rate has fallen.
- Several officials cautioned that inflation remains above target near the mid‑2% range and noted that financial conditions may not be particularly restrictive, arguing for a careful approach.
- The government shutdown has delayed the September jobs report and could postpone key inflation data, complicating the Fed’s data‑dependent process ahead of the late‑October meeting.
- New York Fed President John C. Williams said he supports more cuts to protect a softening labor market and expects the Fed can act using private indicators despite the data delays.