Overview
- Officials voted 10-2 on Oct. 28-29 to trim the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, with rare dissents favoring both tighter and looser policy.
- The minutes show that many participants ruled out a December reduction, several saw one as possible, and most anticipated more cuts over time rather than immediately.
- Policymakers cited the risk that additional easing could entrench inflation or signal wavering on the 2% objective.
- A government shutdown suspended key economic reports, forcing reliance on alternative indicators and contributing to caution about the next step.
- Traders marked down the probability of a December cut to roughly a toss-up, as the minutes also flagged AI-related market risks and confirmed plans to halt balance sheet runoff in December.