Overview

• Records from the Sept. 16–17 meeting show most officials judged downside risks to employment had increased, supporting a shift toward a more neutral policy stance.
• Participants emphasized ongoing inflation risks tied to tariffs and other factors, with a few favoring no further easing and Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a larger 50 basis point cut.
• The Fed’s projections indicated a median path of two additional cuts in 2025, yet the 19 participants were nearly evenly divided on the number and timing of moves.
• CME FedWatch readings point to 90%+ odds of a 25 basis point reduction at the Oct. 28–29 meeting, and investors broadly expect further easing by year-end.
• Recent remarks from regional leaders Jeff Schmid, Neel Kashkari, and Raphael Bostic urged caution due to sticky inflation and tariff effects, with alternative indicators helping fill the data gap during the shutdown.