Particle.news
Download on the App Store
17 ARTICLES
·
1h ago

Fed Minutes Expose Deep Split, Clouding Odds of December Rate Cut

Data delays plus inflation concerns have officials favoring patience, with balance-sheet runoff ending in December.

Renovations continue at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 14, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/
The Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 14, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
Odds of a December Fed rate cut collapse as markets reprice monetary policy
Image

Overview

  • Newly released minutes show many policymakers favor holding the federal funds rate steady for the rest of the year, with several open to a December cut if conditions warrant and most expecting further easing over time.
  • The October meeting delivered a 10–2 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with Stephen Miran dissenting for a half-point cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferring no cut.
  • A 43-day government shutdown limited official data on jobs and inflation, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October jobs report and set the November report for December 16, after the Fed’s Dec. 9–10 meeting.
  • Traders slashed the probability of a December rate cut to roughly one-third, according to CME FedWatch pricing, reflecting a sharp repricing of near‑term easing odds.
  • The committee agreed to stop reducing Treasury and mortgage‑backed securities holdings in December, even as many officials warned that additional rate cuts could risk entrenching inflation or be seen as wavering on the 2% target.