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Fed Minutes Curb Rate-Cut Bets as Dollar Sags and Gold Caps Four-Decade-Best Year

Markets turned cautious after the December record showed a divided Fed, signaling limited scope for further easing.

Overview

  • U.S. stocks dipped after the release: Dow −0.20%, S&P 500 −0.14%, Nasdaq −0.24% in thin holiday trading.
  • Minutes confirmed the 25 bp cut to 3.50–3.75% was approved 9–3, with several officials cautioning that additional cuts may be limited.
  • Mexico’s peso traded near 17.95–17.98 per dollar and is on track for roughly a 13.8% annual gain, while the S&P/BMV IPC fell about 1.5% but is up around 30% in 2025.
  • Spot gold rebounded and is up about 66% year to date, its strongest annual return since 1979, with silver and platinum also elevated after recent records.
  • Argentina closed the year with the official dollar near ARS 1,480 and parallel and financial rates above ARS 1,500, underscoring persistent market segmentation.