Overview
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on Dec. 10, with analysts flagging a likely hawkish cut and limited guidance given delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data.
- Rates futures price roughly 75–77 basis points of total easing through 2026, even as 10- and 30-year Treasury yields have risen since the Fed began cutting, highlighting an unusual policy–bond market disconnect.
- Policy divisions on the FOMC are in focus, and Kevin Hassett has said the Fed should keep cutting, yet market pricing suggests skepticism that a new chair would drive materially deeper easing.
- Australia’s central bank kept its cash rate at 3.60% and warned inflation risks have tilted higher, with markets assigning odds to hikes in 2026 after Governor Michele Bullock highlighted stronger private demand.
- Asian equities mostly slipped ahead of the Fed decision, the dollar held steady, the yen stabilized after Japan’s quake, and traders noted U.S. approval for Nvidia to ship H200 chips to China with a 25% fee.