Overview

• The Fed’s benchmark rate remained at 4.25–4.50 percent following its fifth straight hold, approved by a 9-2 FOMC vote with Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissenting.
• June’s personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.6 percent year-over-year, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target.
• Officials cautioned that new import tariffs are beginning to translate into higher consumer prices and could prolong inflation pressures.
• Futures markets have reduced the odds of a September rate cut to roughly 40 percent after the Fed dropped its forecast for two cuts this year.
• President Trump intensified public criticism of Chair Jerome Powell on Truth Social, calling him “Too Angry, Too Stupid, & Too Political” for resisting calls to lower rates.