Overview

• The Federal Reserve’s June meeting concluded with policy rates held at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking a fourth straight pause since December.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the full impact of President Trump’s tariffs on inflation remains unclear and could materialize over the next several months.
• Officials will release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a dot plot chart that may revise forecasts for growth, inflation and the timeline for rate reductions.
• Market participants now price the first potential rate cut in September, with another possible adjustment before year-end.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and signs of slowing retail and industrial output reinforced policymakers’ cautious, wait-and-see approach.