Overview

• The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, maintaining its cautious policy stance.
• Officials cut the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and raised their inflation outlook to 3%, signaling persistent price pressures.
• Fed policymakers still expect two rate cuts this year, contingent on how trade‐driven inflation dynamics evolve.
• The dollar has lost about 10% of its value against the euro over the past six months due to trade policy uncertainty, fueling imported inflation worries.
• Escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has driven oil prices toward $75 a barrel and added to global market volatility.