Overview

• The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman plan to dissent, marking the first time two governors have broken with the majority since 1993.
• Chair Jerome Powell underscored the Fed’s data-dependent approach as core PCE inflation stayed at 2.7% year-on-year and job market indicators remained strong.
• President Trump’s public calls for dramatic rate cuts and threats against the Fed chairman have heightened concerns about the central bank’s independence.
• CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows traders assigning better than 60% odds to a quarter-point rate cut at the September meeting.