Overview

• The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% at the June 17–18 meeting.
• Traders’ positions on futures markets signal almost no chance of a rate cut this week and forecast easing not before September.
• Fed officials say they need clearer evidence of Trump administration’s tariffs affecting consumer prices and economic growth before adjusting policy.
• Recent data showing rising jobless claims and slower hiring have prompted warnings that delayed rate cuts could threaten US growth.
• Diverging paths include the European Central Bank cutting rates multiple times; the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Taiwan central bank plan to maintain current levels.