Overview
- The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate at a 3.50%–3.75% range at its July 28–29 meeting, voting 9-3 to hold.
- Three regional presidents — Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’s Lorie Logan — dissented and preferred a 25-basis-point hike, signaling an organized push for higher rates.
- Chair Kevin Warsh continues to limit forward guidance and declined to lay out his personal outlook, a shift that makes each meeting more uncertain and puts greater emphasis on the statement and press conference for signals.
- Officials said inflation remains above the 2% goal and pointed to volatile oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and concentrated spending in AI and data centers as factors complicating inflation forecasts.
- Traders raised odds of a September increase after the meeting, shifting short-term market pricing and meaningfully raising the stakes for the next FOMC decision.