Overview

• The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously kept the benchmark federal funds rate in a 4.25%–4.50% range at its June meeting.
• Officials’ updated dot plot maintained two quarter-point rate cuts for 2025 while reducing projected easing to one cut each in 2026 and 2027.
• Economic forecasts were revised to 1.4% GDP growth and 3% personal consumption expenditures inflation for 2025, reflecting a more stagflationary outlook.
• Policymakers cited elevated uncertainty from President Trump’s import tariffs and escalating Middle East tensions as reasons for their data-driven approach.
• Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s independence and indicated that the next rate decision is expected in September 2025.