Overview

• In his first major speech as a governor, Stephen Miran called policy “very restrictive” and said rates are roughly two percentage points too tight, warning of unnecessary layoffs.
• Miran was the lone dissent in last week’s 11–1 vote for a 25‑basis‑point cut, preferring 50 bps, and he projected additional half‑point reductions at the next two meetings.
• He argues the neutral rate has fallen due to tighter immigration, tariff revenue and tax/regulatory shifts, contending rent inflation will cool and tariff effects on prices are overstated.
• St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem, Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack urged caution, citing inflation still near 3% and limited room to ease without risking price pressures.
• Miran’s leave from his White House CEA role and the administration’s petition to remove Governor Lisa Cook have sharpened independence concerns as markets price at least one more cut this year.