Overview
- Futures and options pricing put the probability of a 25-basis-point cut around 85%–87%, which would lower the target range to 3.50%–3.75% and mark a third straight reduction this year.
- Powell has warned a December move is "not a foregone conclusion," keeping the focus on his forward guidance rather than the headline decision.
- Five of 12 voting officials have voiced skepticism about further easing, putting the prospect of multiple dissents—uncommon since 2019—under close scrutiny.
- A 43-day federal shutdown has postponed key Bureau of Labor Statistics releases, with the November employment report now scheduled after the meeting.
- Recent signals are mixed: jobless claims fell to the lowest in more than three years and a Chicago Fed estimate pegs unemployment near 4.4%, while private and prior data show slowing hiring.