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Fed Expected to Hold Rates as July Cuts Gain Momentum Following Strong Jobs Data

April's robust employment report has pushed major banks to delay rate cut expectations, while markets anticipate signals from the Fed's May 6-7 meeting.

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Overview

  • The Federal Reserve is widely projected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during next week's policy meeting.
  • April’s jobs report showed 177,000 nonfarm payrolls added, surpassing expectations and signaling continued labor market strength.
  • Barclays and Goldman Sachs have revised their forecasts, now predicting the first Fed rate cut in July instead of June.
  • Market futures still price in at least three 25-basis-point rate cuts by December, though the strong jobs data has tempered near-term expectations.
  • President Trump has intensified political pressure on the Fed for immediate rate cuts, citing tariff revenues and falling consumer prices as evidence of economic strength.