Overview
- Governor Christopher Waller said he will support a 25 basis-point cut on Dec. 9–10, citing a job market near stall speed with rising jobless claims, more layoffs and muted wage pressures.
- He argued tariff effects on prices are largely one-off and said even the delayed September jobs report is unlikely to shift his view.
- Vice Chair Philip Jefferson called for proceeding slowly as policy nears neutral, noting uncertainty about how much official data will arrive before the meeting after the 43-day shutdown.
- Futures now put the odds of a December move in roughly the mid-30s to mid-40s percent range, signaling a close call for a third straight cut.
- Internal cohesion has cracked, with rare opposing dissents in October and regional presidents Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic and Jeffrey Schmid warning inflation risks favor holding rates steady.