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Fed Delivers Third 2025 Rate Cut, Signals Likely Pause as Committee Splits

The guidance signals a pause pending delayed labor and inflation reports.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, its third straight cut this year.
  • Three officials dissented — Stephen Miran sought a 50 bp move, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid favored holding rates — the most dissents at a meeting since 2019.
  • New projections show the median policymaker expects only one additional quarter-point cut in 2026, with a wide spread of views across the committee.
  • The statement said inflation remains somewhat elevated and job gains have slowed, noting government-shutdown data gaps, with key employment and price reports due next week that could influence January decisions.
  • The Fed said it will purchase short-term Treasuries as needed to maintain ample reserves, as political pressure over faster easing and an impending decision on Jerome Powell’s successor add uncertainty to the policy path.