Fed Delivers Third 2025 Cut as Brazil Holds Selic at 15%

Overview

• The FOMC lowered the federal funds target to 3.50%–3.75% by 25 basis points, with Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid favoring no change and Stephen Miran backing a 50 basis point cut.
• Jerome Powell said the outlook for inflation and employment has changed little since October, noting key data remain delayed after the federal shutdown.
• The Fed’s dot plot showed wide dispersion for 2026 rate paths, reinforcing expectations that further reductions will hinge on incoming data.
• Brazil’s Copom kept the Selic at 15% for the fourth straight meeting, trimmed its medium‑term inflation projection to 3.2%, and avoided signaling when an easing cycle might begin.
• As the White House weighs the next Fed chair, President Trump said he has a “good idea” of his choice, while leading contender Kevin Hassett said there is “quite a bit of room” to lower U.S. rates.