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Fed Cuts Rates to 3.75%–4.00% and Will End Balance‑Sheet Runoff on Dec. 1

Powell signaled a data‑dependent path, leaving a December cut uncertain.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, marking a second straight cut in 2025 and the first drop below 4% since late 2022.
  • The central bank said it will stop reducing its securities holdings on December 1, pausing the quantitative tightening program launched in 2022.
  • The FOMC vote was split, with Stephen Miran favoring a larger 50‑basis‑point cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferring no change.
  • Chair Jerome Powell emphasized elevated uncertainty, rising downside risks to the labor market, and inflation still high, and he cautioned that another cut in December is not assured.
  • The decision came as the government shutdown restricts key economic data releases, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a short‑term hit of $7–$14 billion to the economy.