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Fed Cuts Rates, Signals Uncertainty on December as BOJ and ECB Hold Steady

Powell cited a government data blackout, prompting traders to pare bets on a December cut.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve lowered its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and said quantitative tightening will stop in December.
  • Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction next month is “not a foregone conclusion,” with futures pricing for a December cut falling to roughly 68% as stocks wavered, Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened.
  • The decision drew two dissents, with Stephen Miran backing a deeper cut and Jeffrey Schmid favoring no change because inflation remains above target.
  • The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.5% with two dissenters seeking 0.75%, and the yen weakened after the announcement as officials reiterated readiness to raise rates if conditions warrant.
  • The European Central Bank left its deposit rate at 2% and stuck to data dependence, leaving euro zone markets steady as investors awaited Christine Lagarde’s remarks.