Overview

• The FOMC set the federal funds target at 4.00%–4.25% and the median projection points to 3.6% by year‑end, with Chair Jerome Powell calling the outlook a probability rather than a certainty.
• Policymakers pointed to softer hiring, a 911,000 downward payroll revision and a 4.3% unemployment rate as reasons to ease even as inflation remains above the 2% goal.
• Governor Stephen Miran cast the lone dissent for a larger 50‑basis‑point cut and appeared as an outlier in projections that otherwise favor smaller, incremental moves.
• Markets showed mixed reactions as investors digested the split outlook, with stocks and the dollar firmer on Thursday and bond yields and global equities fluctuating.
• Analysts say a single quarter‑point cut offers little immediate relief for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, with any meaningful impact hinging on further reductions and long‑term yields.