Overview

• The federal funds rate is now 4.00%–4.25%, and the dot plot points to a year‑end range near 3.5%–3.75% on a gradual, data‑dependent path.
• Chair Jerome Powell framed the step as risk management as unemployment sits at 4.3%, with projections still showing about 3% inflation this year and slightly stronger growth.
• New Governor Stephen Miran dissented for a half‑point cut, argued tariffs are not materially inflationary, and drew scrutiny over Fed independence given his White House role.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said two additional quarter‑point cuts this year would likely be appropriate given labor risks, while keeping open the option to pause if needed.
• Market reaction was muted with mixed equity and crypto moves, and the Bank of Japan held its rate at 0.5%, highlighting diverging global policy paths.