Overview

• The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction of 2025, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing growing downside risks to employment after weak job gains and large payroll revisions.
• Projections pointed to a median expectation of two additional quarter‑point cuts this year, though the dot plot revealed a wide divide, and Powell stressed that future decisions are probabilities, not certainties.
• Newly confirmed Governor Stephen Miran issued the lone dissent, arguing for a larger 50‑basis‑point cut, highlighting internal disagreement over the pace of easing.
• Policy paths diverged globally as the Bank of England kept its rate at 4% with a 7–2 vote and U.K. inflation at 3.8%, while Asian equities and currencies moved cautiously following the Fed move.
• Commercial real estate leaders welcomed modest relief to financing conditions and sentiment but warned a single small cut will not resolve deeper valuation and long‑term rate challenges.