Overview
- The average 30-year fixed rate was 5.99% as of Dec. 23, 2025, according to Zillow, with 15-year loans averaging 5.38%.
- Experts say further declines in 2026 depend on cooler inflation and lower Treasury yields, with forecasts clustering in the high-5% to low-6% range.
- Markets largely priced in the Fed’s three 2025 cuts totaling 0.75 percentage point, which limited immediate mortgage-rate moves and even triggered brief increases after Fed guidance.
- Persistent inflation, a resilient labor market, tariffs and heavy federal borrowing could keep bond yields—and mortgage rates—elevated.
- Borrower outcomes vary by profile, as credit, debt, down payment and job stability often outweigh small headline rate shifts; average refinance rates were 6.64% for 30-year and 5.63% for 15-year loans on Dec. 23.